EpiNova: Flexible Extended State-Space Epidemiological Models with Modern
Inference
An extended epidemiological modelling framework that goes beyond the
classical SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model. Supports
SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered),
SEIRD (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased),
SVEIRD (Susceptible-Vaccinated-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased),
and age-stratified compartmental models with flexible intervention
functions (spline-based, Gaussian process, or user-defined). Inference
is available via maximum likelihood or sequential Monte Carlo (SMC,
also known as particle filtering) with no external binary dependencies.
Includes a dependency-free real-time effective reproduction number (Rt)
estimator, spatial multi-patch models with gravity-model mobility,
ensemble forecasting via Bayesian model averaging (BMA), and proper
scoring rules including CRPS (Continuous Ranked Probability Score),
coverage, and MAE (Mean Absolute Error) for forecast evaluation.
Methods follow Anderson and May (1991, ISBN:9780198545996),
Doucet, de Freitas, and Gordon (2001) <doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-3437-9>,
Cori et al. (2013) <doi:10.1093/aje/kwt133>,
and Gneiting and Raftery (2007) <doi:10.1198/016214506000001437>.
| Version: |
0.1.0 |
| Depends: |
R (≥ 4.0.0) |
| Imports: |
deSolve, ggplot2, dplyr, tidyr, splines, scales |
| Suggests: |
DEoptim, MASS, numDeriv, rstan, TMB, EpiEstim, knitr, rmarkdown, testthat (≥ 3.0.0), ggpubr, patchwork |
| Published: |
2026-04-22 |
| DOI: |
10.32614/CRAN.package.EpiNova (may not be active yet) |
| Author: |
Subir Hait  [aut,
cre] |
| Maintainer: |
Subir Hait <haitsubi at msu.edu> |
| BugReports: |
https://github.com/causalfragility-lab/EpiNova/issues |
| License: |
MIT + file LICENSE |
| URL: |
https://github.com/causalfragility-lab/EpiNova |
| NeedsCompilation: |
no |
| Citation: |
EpiNova citation info |
| Materials: |
README, NEWS |
| CRAN checks: |
EpiNova results |
Documentation:
Downloads:
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